The global battle against climate change is stumbling badly, leaving our planet on a dangerously hot trajectory despite all the promises— that's the sobering wake-up call from the latest United Nations report. Imagine every country in the world being assigned a crucial assignment: come up with stronger strategies to curb global warming. Well, they turned in their work, but according to this UN analysis, those updated plans have only nudged the needle a tiny bit toward cooling things down for the future.
For more on the skepticism surrounding climate action, check out this piece: Trump called climate change a ‘con job’ at the United Nations. Here are the facts and context (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-called-climate-change-a-con-job-at-the-united-nations-here-are-the-facts-and-context).
And here's a twist that really stings: much of the modest gains from these international efforts are being wiped out by the United States pulling out of the Paris Agreement altogether, the report points out. To give you some background for beginners, the Paris Agreement is that landmark 2015 global pact where nearly every nation committed to limiting warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, ideally 1.5 degrees, above pre-industrial levels—think of it as a team effort to avoid the worst disasters like extreme weather and rising seas.
These fresh national plans, which countries are required to submit and update every five years under the Paris deal, manage to trim projected future warming by just about 0.3 degrees Celsius (that's roughly 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to last year's forecasts. But on the flip side, policies from the Trump administration—like easing up on pollution controls and slowing down renewable energy initiatives—are expected to tack on an extra 0.1 degrees Celsius of warming, according to the UN Environment Program's Emissions Gap report released on Tuesday.
But here's where it gets really personal and urgent: 'Every fraction of a degree counts when it comes to protecting people and nature worldwide,' explains Adelle Thomas, vice chair of a key UN scientific group that assesses climate risks. She emphasizes how this is especially critical for already struggling communities and delicate environments. For instance, that extra heat intensifies deadly heatwaves that strain our bodies and power grids, fuels devastating marine heatwaves that bleach vibrant coral reefs (like the Great Barrier Reef's ongoing crisis), and accelerates long-term threats such as sea-level rise, which could displace millions in coastal areas like Bangladesh or Miami.
At its core, global temperature rise stems from greenhouse gases—primarily carbon dioxide—pumping into the atmosphere when we burn fossil fuels like oil, natural gas, and coal for energy, transportation, and industry. So, these national plans outline specific steps and timelines for slashing those emissions, aiming to transition to cleaner alternatives like solar and wind power.
And this is the part most people miss: within the coming decade, we're on track to smash through that vital 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold set in Paris, measured from mid-1800s levels. If countries actually follow through on their current pledges, warming could still hit 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.1 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century—a level that scientists warn would unleash more frequent floods, droughts, and biodiversity loss. Right now, with existing policies in place, we're heading toward a scorching 2.8 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit), which sets the stage for the upcoming UN climate negotiations in Belem, Brazil, where leaders will need to hash out bolder moves.
Even if we ramp up emission cuts from fossil fuels at breakneck speed—say, phasing out coal plants rapidly and electrifying everything from cars to factories—the report predicts we'll likely see at least 1.7 degrees Celsius (3.1 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming this century before any potential slowdown. That's still a huge improvement from a decade ago, pre-Paris Agreement, when projections pointed to a blistering 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter world, potentially turning parts of the planet uninhabitable.
'We're inching forward, which is something,' noted Inger Andersen, the Executive Director of the UN Environment Program, in a chat with The Associated Press. 'But honestly, we need to pick up the pace dramatically to avoid catastrophe.'
Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room—the United States. They submitted an ambitious plan under the Biden administration back in 2024, promising deep emission reductions that could have been a game-changer. But with the Trump team set to withdraw from the Paris Agreement in just two months, the outlook darkens considerably. The report highlights how the US was poised for some of the biggest cuts globally until this reversal.
To compensate, the UN now estimates the rest of the world must slash an additional 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually to offset the projected surge in US pollution. For context, last year the planet released 57.7 billion tons of greenhouse gases overall, and to stand a shot at staying close to the 1.5-degree goal, we need to drop that to around 33 billion tons per year—like swapping out dirty power plants for vast solar farms or reforesting huge swaths of land to absorb CO2.
Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics and co-lead of the independent Climate Action Tracker, which monitors emission pledges, confirms these findings align with his team's data. 'These figures scream a serious shortfall in political commitment,' he observes, pointing to how leaders prioritize short-term economics over long-term survival.
But here's where it gets controversial: is the US withdrawal under Trump really the nail in the coffin for global climate action, or could it spark other nations to step up even more aggressively? Some argue it exposes the fragility of relying on one big player, while others see it as a rallying cry for international solidarity. What do you think—does this report finally prove that climate pledges are just hot air, or is there still hope if we act now? Drop your thoughts in the comments below; I'd love to hear if you agree or have a different take.
The Associated Press’s climate and environmental reporting is supported by several private foundations. AP handles all editorial decisions independently. Learn more about AP’s standards for philanthropy partnerships, supporters, and funded topics at AP.org.
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